Idea to Startup: Testing an Idea's Potential Using the ERP Rubric: FODMAPs

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This Episode

Today is Part 2 of the series introducing the ERP (Early Rep Potential) Rubric. The idea behind ERP is that the best idea for you is the one you can do "full rep" tests on the fastest. We help Erica evaluate the potential of her FODMAP idea, where she's looking to help people identify specific food sensitivities. We score the idea and get clarity on its potential. We also talk a little Jon Hamm.

Pod References

• Tacklebox (test your startup idea)

• No Whisper Ideas (weekly newsletter, sign up to get a Notion copy of the ERP Rubric)

• How to Pick Which (of your many) Ideas to Pursue (ERP Rubric Part 1)

• Jon Hamm Show

  00:30 ERP Rubric Part Two
  03:52 The Ideas - Mold and FODMAPs
  06:27 ERP Intro: Choose a Specific Customer
  09:12 Part 1: Can You Find Your Customer?
  12:59 Part 2: Can You Convert Customers?
  17:01 Part 3: Can You Build a Solution?
  21:12 Part 4: Collecting Feedback
  23:19 Part 5: Organic Growth Potential
  25:23 The Final Two Questions
  28:00 The End

Transcript - feel free to read like a long-form article

ERP Part 2: Testing FODMAPs

Today, we’re back with part two of testing out the Early Rep Potential Rubric.

If you didn’t listen to part 1, I thought it was good and you’ll probably like it - I’ll put it in the show notes. But you’ll be able to get through today’s without listening to that one first if you’re too busy watching that show where Jon Hamm is stealing from his neighbors like my wife and I are. It’s a show that, at it’s core, is about expectations, and that’s fitting because my wife and I now have like 11 minutes a night to ourselves between the little guy going down for the night and the littlest guy waking up for a bottle that it takes us a full week to watch an episode, but those 11 minutes feel like a mini vacation. Our 11 minute Jon Hamm dates. I’d watch that guy read the dictionary. It’s also possible I’m just very tired and the show stinks and this whole intro is obsolete in like 2 weeks.

Anyway, last episode we talked through the ERP Rubric, a tool we’ve developed to help you wrap your arms around the potential of an idea. It’s also a great for comparing ideas - if you’ve got three, it’ll help you pick which to focus on first.

To show the ERP Rubric in action, we talked about a founder named Erica who turned up to Tacklebox with a whole bunch of ideas, like probably 80% of our founders do. She was trying to figure out which to go after first, and to this point had been using a pro’s and con’s list which included nebulous bullets like “better VC potential” and “probably easier to execute on.”

For most entrepreneurs, building a pro’s and con’s list for an idea at the earliest stage is like a few weeks ago when a new recipe I was trying out called for kohlrabi and I ended up wandering up and down the produce aisle of the grocery store for 10 minutes like a kid who’d wandered into the wrong movie theater. Eventually a nice lady asked if I was lost and pointed me in the right direction. Neither me nor Erica knew what we were looking for but neither of us wanted to admit it.

The ERP Rubric exists for this moment. ERP, again, stands for Early Rep Potential, and the idea behind it is that the best idea for you is the one where you can get the most momentum the fastest. And momentum, in this case, means reps.

This isn’t revolutionary. The problem that let’s you practice solving it the most is the one you’re most likely to get good at solving. But, people don’t think of ideas this way. They think of VC potential or which one is easier or which will make them look more impressive to the people they went to high school with. Startups are often emotional. We’ve gotta remove that.

A rep - the core of the ERP Rubric - consists of five parts. You need to:

• Find a customer.

• Convert that customer

• Deliver a product or service, likely held together by duct tape and bubble gum and probably done with no tech

• Gather a bunch of direct feedback

• Grow organically

The goal is to find an idea where we can run a full rep - even if it’s clunky - in the next two weeks. That’s not always possible immediately, but it’s usually more doable than the founder thinks. And, it’ll give you enormous insight into what a future with this idea might look like. You want to test drive ideas as soon as possible.

The best way to show you this is to show you this. So, we’ll be running two of Erica’s ideas through the Rubric over the next two episodes.

Enough preamble - let’s get into it.

—

The Ideas: Mold and FODMAPs

For all the newbies who were too busy watching Jon Hamm steal 40 thousand dollar birkin bags to listen to episode one, here are the two ideas Erica is deciding between:

First, the one we we’ll do in next week’s episode: Mold.

Lots of people have mold, don’t know they have mold, and it negatively affects their respiratory system and sleep and cognitive abilities and all sorts of other things. The idea is to help people find out if they have mold and then to get rid of it - both hard problems. They also kick off all sorts of interesting adjacent problems around toxins and water quality and all that. More in the next episode.

The idea we’ll go push through the ERP Rubric today has to do with a term you might not be familiar with: FODMAPs. FODMAPs are short-chain carbohydrates that a huge chunk of people can’t digest properly. It causes all sorts of problems and is, for the most part…. ignored.

Here’s Erica.

“FODMAPs are interesting because of how massive a blind spot they are. About 15% of us have undiagnosed IBS-level carb reactions—and 80% of diagnosed IBS patients feel dramatically better on a low-FODMAP diet.

But testing for it is really hard, because FODMAPs are in, like, everything. One type are in wheat, rye, barley, onions and garlic. Another is in beans, lentils and chickpeas. Another is in Lactose. Another in apples, pears, mango, honey. Another in sugars - artificial and natural. Some people can handle some of these, most people can’t handle all of them.

She continued.

It’d be great if there were ways to test for these, but they aren’t effective. There are breath tests and blood tests but they’re filled with false positives and negatives. They don’t work.

The ONLY reliable way to find out how much better you could feel is what’s called an elimination diet. Where you remove all FODMAPs for 2-6 weeks, then, slowly, reintroduce them systematically and see which mess up your gut.

This is, obviously, really hard. So people don’t do it.

Most people have no idea how much better they could feel if they found the stuff that aggravated their gut and stopped eating it. I want to help.”

So, there’s the idea. You probably have no idea what it feels like to feel good.

Erica wants to help.

Let’s see what the ERP Rubric says about her chances.

—

Customer

The first step of the ERP Rubric is often the hardest one. Because you’ve got to pick a specific, living breathing, in this case bloated person you’ve met and spoken with to be the representation of that customer.

The ERP Rubric doesn’t work if you’re vague. If you say the customer you’re testing for is, quote, someone who struggles eating gluten - the system falls apart.

The challenge isn’t usually choosing that person, it’s the feeling of leaving everyone else out. But know that you can run through the ERP Rubric a few times with different customers. I’d recommend it.

And, if you’re struggling with who should be first, always think about disproportionate pain. Which of the handful of customers you’re deciding between has a disproportionately large amount of pain because of… something?

When I asked Erica for a first customer, she mentioned a few flavors of customers. One who’d just gone to the doctor and been diagnosed with IBS and was starting to go on the elimination diet journey, one who had chronic stomach pain but hadn’t ever gotten it tested out but had been excited when Erica told them the idea, and another person who’d tried to do elimination diets in the past to isolate trigger foods, but couldn’t because they had a few young kids and it was really hard to cook separate meals for everyone for weeks on end.

You might think that these customers could be lumped together - they all might end up needing a similar looking product that helps them with an elimination diet. But, I couldn’t disagree more. They’re each different flavors, and startups are successful if they’re hyper, almost painfully specific. If it feels like they’re reading your mind. That’s how you build trust. And adding the flavors of customers together will dilute your messaging, pull from the specificity, and won’t create trust.

That’s why we choose one.

When I asked Erica which felt the FODMAP pain disproportionately, she answered immediately.

“The third - Lyza. She’s the mom. She’s tried to do an elimination diet but it’s incredibly difficult with a family. I could help her with that.”

And that’s step one. Pick your customer.

Now, we figure out how hard it’ll be to get reps with them, and people exactly like them.

And we’ll do that… after, a little smooth jazz.

—

Jazz

—

Part 1: Will You Be Able to Find Your Customers?

After choosing the customer we’re looking to find, the Rubric tasks us with finding them.

This always reminds me of that mark twain quote, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so,” because founders are always so confident they’ll be able to find customers that they zip past this stage and move to product. Not us.

Reps only work if you can reliably fill the top of the funnel with customers easily. It cannot be hard to find customers. This requires a few things, which the ERP tests for.

Let’s see how Erica’s customer did.

As a reminder, the rubric breaks down the five parts of a rep into a few questions each, and assigns points based on the answers. You can get the notion template by subscribing to the No Whisper Ideas newsletter at gettacklebox dot com slash articles.

To make this as easy to follow as possible, I’ll group the questions and give Erica’s thoughts after. For the Potential for Finding Customers part of the Rubric, there are three questions:

Question 1: Unfair advantage. Rate your unfair advantage for finding this customer - maybe through an existing network, community membership, online audience, or some other way. 0 to 5 points.

Question 2: After Pain. How glaring and frequent is the pain caused by the problem? How easy is it to find this customer immediately after they feel it? 0 to 5 points.

Question 3: The Weekend Test. If you needed to find 15 customers this weekend… how would you do it? Is it repeatable?

Here’s Erica answering these three:

“So, I’ve got a bit of an unfair advantage for finding Lyza. I’m part of a mom’s group that’s got a Facebook page I can post to easily. I’m also at events with kids like, every weekend. If my customer is a mom, or just a parent, I can find them. So, I’m giving myself a 4/5 there.

The second prompt, after pain, is much tougher, because I’m not sure which pain we’re talking about. The pain of the problem itself, or the pain they experience trying to solve the problem.

Here’s where I jumped in, because it’s a great question. And the answer is… either. If I get achilles tendonitis from running, right after I have to stop a run because of the pain is a great moment to reach me. But, if it’s also hard for them to find a physical therapist because they work odd hours or live in a remote location, that’s another painful moment.

“Ok, great.” she continued. “Well, it’s hard for me to get in front of them after a painful meal, but it’ll probably be easier to get in front of them as they try to meal plan for the week during an attempt at an elimination diet? Or, maybe, while they shop for Tums at CVS? I’ll give myself a 1 out of 5 here and make a note to come back to it.”

“And, finally, the weekend test.” she said. “How might I find 15 customers this weekend? I think I can just write a message in the Facebook group saying I’m thinking about starting this company and asking if anyone would want to meet for coffee and talk about it. Other options are to go to sporting events, the park - all the other places parents go - and talk to people. I’ll say 4 out of 5.”

So, a total of 9 out of 15. Which is solid. But now we’ve got to dig in on how likely it is we’ll convert Lyza into an actual customer.

—

ERP Part 2: Will you be able to convert customers?

To get reps, you’ve got to be able to easily fill the top of the funnel and then have mechanisms to convert the people that showed up.

When most people think about conversion, they think about persuasion. How compelling can your messaging be? How strong are your case studies? How trustworthy is your branding?

At this stage, that’s overthinking it. Those are all things that you can test and optimize and build on. What we’re looking for with the ERP Rubric are the systemic advantages or disadvantages of an idea. So we’ve got to zoom out.

The conversion section has three questions that’ll help with that - again worth 5 points each, and again we’ll read through them then get to Erica’s thoughts.

1. Problem Frequency: How often does this problem occur and how often do customers try to solve it? Daily? Weekly? Monthly? Or - hopefully not - yearly? 0-1 points for monthly or longer, 2-3 points for weekly, 4-5 points for daily or multiple times a day.

2. Prior Attempts + Hassle Premium: How many different attempts at solving the problem has your customer tried? Have they ever given up and just “overpaid” someone to “take it off their plate?” 0-3 points if they’ve tried two or more different solutions, the last 2 points if they’ve paid someone to take the whole thing off their plate - for example, trying turbo tax for their business but then just hiring an accountant.

3. Wedge Offering: Is there a smaller, related problem you can solve that happens more frequently and has a fast feedback loop? This will build trust and get your foot in the door, and it’s worth up to 5 points.

Here’s Erica.

“OK — for problem frequency, I’m going to give this a 4 out of 5.

The core problem — gut discomfort — happens basically every day. If someone’s sensitive to FODMAPs and eats them, they’ll feel it pretty soon after. And if they’re on an elimination diet, they’re constantly making decisions about what to eat and how to feed their family. That’s daily. The only reason I’m not giving it a 5 is that not everyone connects their discomfort to their food right away, so they might not be looking for a solution every time the problem hits. But still — this is frequent.”

Next, prior attempts and hassle premium.

“I’m giving this a 4.

Every mom I’ve talked to who’s had stomach issues has tried something. Usually a bunch of things. Gluten-free. Dairy-free. Probiotics. Fiber supplements. Changing the time they eat.

So that’s easily 3 points for prior attempts.

As for the hassle premium? I can’t give this the full two points because while I’ve heard people say they’d love to just pay someone to meal prep for them every week, I’ve never heard of anyone actually doing it. Seems like something I’ll need to test.

Finally, wedge offering.

“This one is a little harder,” Erica started. “The ‘wedge’ would be something like helping them meal plan for a week. Or maybe even just building a grocery list based on their sensitivities that they could then cook from. Or, helping them identify five meals they can make that the whole family will eat — no separate cooking.

That wedge feels doable. I could test that pretty quickly. And it would build trust — if I helped them with that one thing, they’d probably come back for more, maybe? I’ll give it a 2, since it isn’t that differentiated. I think they could do all that stuff on line already. I’ll need to think more on wedge.”

The final tally for conversion was a 10 out of 15. Great problem frequency and prior attempts, decent hassle premium, shaky wedge.

But, some really good fundamentals. The problem happens every day. You’ll have a chance to hit customers after they feel the pain every day. That’s a huge win for a startup. And it pushes us into the next section - a Concierge MVP that’d deliver value immediately. Like, in the next two weeks.

—

Part 3: Concierge MVP - Actually Solving their Problem

The next step of the rep, after picking a customer, finding them, and converting them, is what most founders think is the most important part. The whole reason we’re here. The Jon Hamm of today’s pod - Solving a customer’s problem.

It’s not the most important of the 5 steps, it’s maybe the 3rd most important, but people like solving problems - that’s why you get into entrepreneurship.

So, what we need to do is solve their problem before we have any semblance of a real product.

This is where a lot of ideas fall apart.

You’ll meet founders who say things like “I can definitely build the product… once I find the right developer… and raise $250k… and get FDA approval.” This isn’t helpful.

At this stage, the goal isn’t a scalable solution — it’s a manual one. A Concierge MVP. You doing the thing for the customer. When I think about Concierge MVP’s I think about the founder in a butler outfit, with the tuxedo and the hat and the white gloves, showing up the instant their customer runs into the problem and magically solving it. That’s what you’ll need to do.

Here’s an example.

Maybe a founder thinks boutique fitness instructors struggle with scheduling and client follow-up. So, she charges the business to personally manage the calendars and send reminder texts for three instructors for two weeks using Google Calendar and her phone. If they show up on time and retain more clients, she’s validated the need for a tool.

Back to the Rubric. The three prompts for the Solution section, worth 5 points each as always, are:

• Concierge MVP — Can you manually solve this customer’s problem right now, without writing code or building a product?

• Design Partners — Do you already have customers who would collaborate with you to use and help you develop the solution?

• Unfair Advantage — Do you have any unfair advantages when it comes to delivering value? Unique skills, relationships, expertise?

Here’s Erica again:

“First, on the Concierge MVP thing, I’ve… already done this. I’ve walked friends through the elimination diet process step-by-step. I built meal plans, helped them prep, and sent recipes.”

I jumped in with an annoying Brian reminder.

“Just a heads up, you’re building this FOR LYZA. So, if you’ve built something for similar-ish customers in the past, it doesn’t count. Can you build it for Lyza.”

Erica glared at me, something I was getting used to, and continued. “Good point. I guess the Concierge MVP for Lyza would have to be a meal service, right? Where I cooked and dropped off meals? Because she’s tried to meal plan and it’s just too complex. So, I think I could do it, but I’d have to charge her a ton. So I guess it’s more about cost. Which is worth testing, I guess. So, maybe 5 out of 5 in that I could do it, but who knows if she’d cover the costs.”

Great. Up next, Design Partners.

“Yes. Lyza would definitely help with this, and I’m pretty sure I’ve got three other parents very similar to Lyza who would test it out. This is another 5 out of 5.”

Last up, Unfair Advantage.

“I think I’ve got three:

1. I’ve been through this whole process myself and documented everything. I’ve got a full elimination plan, with checklists and systems and even a few templates. It won’t be hard to translate that into meals.

2. I’ve got credibility with this audience — I’m a parent, too. I understand the chaos of trying to make three meals at once while one kid is crying and another just got stuck in the dirty clothes hamper. I can message to the chaos and build trust.

3. Third, I have a good friend who runs a catering business. I bet I can get her to cook for me for a weekend or two.

So, I hate to be cocky, but I think that’s another 5 out of 5.”

Added up, the Solution section is a clean 15 out of 15. Erica’s cruisin’

Two sections left - Feedback and Growth .

—

Part 4: Collecting Feedback

This section is short and straightforward. Once you’ve delivered value, will it be obvious if the thing you did… worked?

This is way trickier than you’d think. If you design a sandwich board that a coffee shop puts outside to help them sell more donuts, and they do, is it obvious that your sign was the reason? Do they even track donut sales close enough to notice the change? Will they buy more design stuff from you? These are the types of questions we need to think about.

Here are the two big ones:

1. Obvious, Visual Success: Will it be blindingly, indisputably obvious to you and your customer if they’re successful with your Concierge MVP?

2. Length of Feedback Loop: How long will it take for a customer to reach the “success” point of your Concierge MVP?

Each of these is, again, worth 5 points.

Here’s Erica.

“This section is way fuzzier.

Ideally, when people find a food that’s been wrecking their gut and eliminate it they feel better. And I’m confident they will. But, it’s going to take some time to figure out which exact food is responsible.

But, I do think it’ll be clear that the program we’ve put them on removed their immediate pain. So, I’ll say 4/5.

And for the length of the feedback loop, this is the troublesome one. Their stomach should feel better in a few days, or a week or two at most. But, again, to actually find the culprit will take weeks of reintroduction.

This is a 2 out of 5, I think. Unless I figure out a better approach.”

So, overall, 6/10 on feedback loops.

This is.. fine. Erica’s problem creates clear wins, but, it takes time to suss it all out. Balancing the immediate win with the longer term sussing out of allergies is tricky. But, I actually like the clarity of the potential win. We can work with that. That’ll travel.

Which brings us to the last section - Organic Growth Potential.

—

Part 5: Organic Growth - Will Success with One Customer Lead Us to the Next Five

Organic growth for 99% of startups has nothing to do with youtube or tiktok or any sort of viral anything. It’s just word of mouth. One customer talks to another customer about the success they’ve gotten from your product.

Or, a customer’s success is so visual, other people can’t help but notice and ask how they did it.

Again, organic growth is something we can predict based on characteristics of your first customer.

Here are our criteria:

1. Word-Of-Mouth: Do these customers already naturally talk about the problem you’re solving with each other?

2. Portable Success: How visual is the success? Will other customers be able to see it?

3. Case Studies: Will it be easy to get testimonials or create case studies from early customers?

Here’s Erica:

“I think this is a yes — especially with parents. They talk. They text. They swap tips on Facebook groups, and if we give Lyza a low-FODMAP chili her whole family actually eats, she’s telling friends. I’m giving this a 4 out of 5.”

Portability

“This is a little tougher. FODMAP wins are felt, but they’re harder to see. It’s not like a before-and-after photo. That said, if someone goes from ‘I can’t figure this out and I’m exhausted’ to ‘I’m finally not bloated and I slept through the night,’ that story might travel in the right setting. I’ll give it a 3 out of 5.”

Case Study Potential

“Absolutely. Once someone goes through the process, we’ll have detailed notes, meals that worked, symptom tracking, how fast they improved, etc. I could wrap that into a simple one-pager or blog post or even a testimonial-driven ad. I’ve already written up versions of this for a few friends. So, 5 out of 5.”

Total: 12 out of 15.

So, good organic growth potential.

The Rubric ends with two general questions that I recommend people answer after going through the rest of the ERP gauntlet. They’re both a bit less tangible, but important.

First, What mile are you starting on?

If this idea were a 10-mile race to product-market fit, what mile are you starting on?

Erica: “I’d say mile 6. I’ve already helped people through this, I’ve got the raw materials for the product, and I know where to find my customers. I’m not sprinting yet, but I’m close.”

Mile 6 gets Erica… 6 points.

And, finally, the Uncomfortable Bonus:

Do you enjoy anything about this idea that would probably scare off other founders?

Erica: “Yes. I like doing the elimination planning. I like the complexity. I like debugging the diet. I like helping people through it. Most people would find this tedious and exhausting. I find it fun.”

This is a 10 out of 10. Alright.

When you add it all up, Erica’s got a final ERP score of… 83 out of 100.

Here’s the breakdown:

• Finding Customers: 9 / 15

• Conversion: 10 / 15

• Concierge MVP / Solution: 15 / 15

• Collecting Feedback: 6 / 10

• Organic Growth: 12 / 15

• General (Mile + Bonus): 16 / 20

This is… way stronger than I’d anticipated. Most ideas are in the 50s and 60s. It’s hard to find customers, hard to convert them, hard to have a concierge MVP at the ready. The success isn’t usually all that visible or portable. This idea has a lot going for it.

And, to address the massive elephant in the room - I have no idea if other companies are solving for this. The competitive landscape isn’t really something we worry about right now. Because the whole point of reps are to get better at each step, and better always means contrast from the existing solution. Different from what’s happening now. At every step.

The ERP Rubric tests your ability to get those reps - to get you to the point where you can iterate product and messaging and all the pillars that’ll help you build something differentiated.

My advice to Erica after this exercise is… do a sprint. Run a two-week test with Lyza and anyone else who’s interested. Try to leverage the first round to get another set of customers. Speak with a lawyer to make sure you aren’t breaking any laws by serving food, but that sort of thing is solvable. Name the thing and get a website up.

Maybe she calls it Gut Feeling. I’m not saying she has to, but I am saying there are worse names.

And that’s the ERP Rubric in action.

—

The End

I have no idea how this podcast is going to come off. Maybe it’ll be boring or maybe it’ll be helpful. It’s a bit different than a bunch of previous episodes and I couldn’t tell as I recorded.

But hopefully it makes it clear that an idea turns into potential momentum real fast with a process like that. And that the best predictator of startup success is the ease of early reps. The ability to practice and get better at solving a problem. And for those reps to not be wholly overwhelming. They should be fast and cheap and easy so that you’re comfortable trying new stuff.

If you’ve got an idea, or a few, I’d recommend running through it.

And if you’re wondering, yes I did think about naming Erica’s business how to lose your gut in 10 days, but that felt more like a diet startup, and 10 things I hate about fodmaps felt like a buzzfeed listicle. So, gut feeling it is.

Unless you’ve got a better one.